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Prediction for CME (2025-07-30T04:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-07-30T04:30Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40302/-1
CME Note: Super faint CME with a fuzzy front to the SE as seen in COR2A, and possibly the same faint fuzzy front might be seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2. Not seen in C3 and GOES CCOR-1. A possible source could be a filament eruption near AR 4157 (S21W17) best seen (although still very faintly) in GOES SUVI 304 and STEREO A EUV 304 after 2025-07-30T02:45Z. No clear arrival signature seen in the solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-02T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40305/1
Model Inputs:
2025-07-30T04:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=620.0, HalfAngle=12.0, Time21.5=2025-07-30T08:01Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-02T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-31T05:03Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-01T19:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-01T01:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250730_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 48.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-07-31T01:21Z

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